Flat is the New Up – Subscriber Growth Takes a Back Seat for Streamers

We may have reached peak streaming. Across the board, media companies are reporting subscriber growth has stalled out. Peacock has been holding at 41 million for 9 straight months. Fubo now has 1.6 million subscribers – a number it first hit at the end of 2023. Disney+ has been hovering around 57 million U.S. subscribers for 3 straight quarters. Hulu + Live TV has 4.3 million subscribers, the same number it had at the end of 2021. Other streamers have stopped reporting subscriber numbers.

So if these companies can’t make money by attracting more subscribers, they’re just raising prices.

Just this year, we’ve had price hikes for:

• MGM+
• Disney+, Hulu, and Hulu + LIve TV
• HBO Max
• Philo
• DIRECTV
• Britbox
• Apple TV
• Peacock
• Acorn TV
• Plex

It’s not like we’re getting significantly more content for our increased subscription fees. Most movie studios produce about one movie a month. Most streamers only offer 1-2 new series per month, not counting cheap reality shows. These companies are counting on your laziness to keep you from leaving.

While you could argue Peacock’s value increased because of its NBA deal, every Peacock subscriber is subsidizing the contract, even if they don’t like basketball. There isn’t a way for Peacock subscribers to opt out unless they drop to the very-limited Peacock Select tier or cancel altogether. The craziest thing is that HBO Max still raised its price even after losing the NBA and replacing it with nothing nearly as popular.

Disney says its average monthly revenue per U.S. subscriber is $12.40 for Hulu (SVOD) and $8.09 for Disney+. Why the difference? More people opt for the Hulu ad-supported tier. And Hulu has so many ad breaks that are so long, it can monetize the service more effectively. For HBO Max, the average revenue per user is $11.16. Those numbers don’t yet reflect what these services are making after the recent price hikes.

Disney+ is making 29% more per user now than it was 3 years ago, before it had an ad-supported tier.

These streamers know their higher prices are frustrating consumers, but they seem intent on pushing the number as high as it can go.

Bundle offers take the edge off some of the sticker shock. This year has brought bundles for Apple TV and Peacock, ESPN Unlimited and FOX One, and ESPN Unlimited and NFL+ Premium. Prime Video offers lots of different bundle configurations to help viewers save. You could still argue the HBO Max-Hulu-Disney+ bundle is the best deal of all.

While users are unhappy with price hikes, and there’s an uneasy truce with bundles, the house of cards could come crashing down next year.

As Disney takes control of Fubo, it will control two live TV services, reducing competition in the market.

Disney will also fold Hulu into Disney+, and we don’t know if you’ll be able to avoid paying for it if you still want Disney+.

There’s also the threat of Warner Bros. Discovery being swallowed by a competitor like Comcast (Peacock), Paramount Skydance (Paramount+) or Netflix. Pulling a competitor off the board will reduce overall output and require even heftier subscription fees. Disney releases about the same number of movies it did before acquiring 21st Century Fox, but now there’s no Fox putting out films.

Right now, more than half of streaming subscribers say they pay $50 or less per month in total for their subscriptions, according to Civic Science. If we assume one of those subscriptions is ad-free Netflix at $17.99, that leaves $22 for everything else, and $22 doesn’t buy as much streaming video as it used to.

So what does the future hold? More consolidation. Higher prices. Less competition. And probably a lot more frustration as people are forced to pick and choose to stay within their budgets.

Just remember, they’re not necessarily looking for growth. They just need to stay flat and keep charging you more.