HBO Max Has Awful Retention Rate – Is Netflix Buying a Broken Streamer?

If you’re like me, you jumped on HBO Max‘s Black Friday deal for $2.99/month. But what are the odds you’ll stick with the service in 12 months? About 1 in 3.

The data analytics firm Antenna tracks streaming subscriptions over time, and they just released some information that should give Netflix some second thoughts about their planned acquisition.

Antenna’s numbers show that 6 in 10 people who sign up for the Disney+-Hulu-HBO Max bundle stick with that plan a year later. That’s excellent retention.

But if you look at the individual components of that bundle, standalone HBO Max subscribers are more likely to cancel than people who subscribe to either Hulu or Disney+. And that should be a red flag for any potential new owner.

We know that bundle subscribers are more likely to stick with their bundle than people who have a standalone subscription. The cost savings is really powerful if you’re willing to combine subscriptions. Add in the pain point of having to cancel and then resubscribe to your favorite part of a bundle and you’ve got a durable formula.

But there are some major questions if Netflix (or Paramount, for that matter) manages to acquire Warner Bros.

Why is HBO Max’s Cancellation Rate So High?

I subscribe to HBO Max primarily for its library. The HBO label has consistently created some of the best television over the last 25 years. It has given us the best shows in multiple genres: mafia (“The Sopranos”), western (“Deadwood”), fantasy (“Game of Thrones”), political satire (“Veep”). And then there’s “The Wire,” a show so brilliant and all-encompassing, universities offer courses on the show.

(Mounts soapbox and grabs megaphone.) Please stop what you’re doing and start watching “The Wire.” Words cannot capture how great it is. (Dismounts soapbox.)

My main issue with HBO is that they’ve really taken their foot off the gas. The gap between seasons has always been a problem – people forget “The Sopranos” released a new season every year when it started, but then there was a 15-month gap between Season 4 and 5, then a 21-month gap before Season 6. But now it’s normal for nearly all HBO shows to have a 2- or 3-year wait between seasons.

wAt that pace, my condolences go out to the cast of the new “Harry Potter” series. The kid they cast as Harry will have a full-on beard by the third season.

HBO used to surprise us with its orginals. Who knew America would fall in love with a show about ice zombies and dragons when it debuted in 2011? But that appetite for originality seems to have faded. Many of the current and upcoming shows are now just spinoffs of existing movie or TV IP: “It: Welcome to Derry,” “House of the Dragon,” “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms,” “Dune: Prophesy,” “Lanterns.” Bring back the HBO that used to bring new stories to the screen for the first time!

HBO was on fire when it released “Chernobyl,” “I May Destroy You,” “Watchmen,” “Mare of Easttown,” and “Station Eleven” from 2019-2021. But since David Zaslav became CEO, the limited series have dried up. Without those miniseries to keep us entertained between seasons of bigger shows, the HBO library can start to feel stale.

HBO also used to invest in series like “Real Sports with Bryant Gumbel,” which always offered remarkable stories. It won 33 Emmys! With ESPN becoming some weird hot take factory, there’s a real opportunity for that kind of serious-minded show. HBO canceled the series in 2023.

I hope Netflix can find a way to breathe new life into HBO instead of raiding its library and dumping the service. But as media conglomerates grow ever larger, it seems rare that they are willing to shepherd individual brands. If Netflix is willing to invest, HBO Max could return to glory as the must-have streamer for grown-up stories. If not, it was a good run while it lasted.