An illustration showing a large Netflix fish eating a smaller Warner Bros. Discovery fish.
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Netflix Overpays, Gets Exclusive Right to Buy Warner Bros. Discovery, and You’re Gonna Hate It

That sound you hear is a mixture of anguished screams and bottles popping all over Hollywood. In one of the biggest stories in entertainment history, Netflix appears poised to buy Warner Bros. Discovery.

Yes, really.

$7.99/mo.

Paramount and Netflix were seen as the top bidders for the portfolio, and when Paramount publicly flipped out yesterday, it suggested Netflix was in the pole position.

Late last night, the news broke. Netflix had won, setting off a Domino chain that will likely make everyone furious.

It’s estimated Netflix offered around $30 per share of WBD, which is crazy when you consider it was trading for $7.69 just 8 months ago.

Who Gets What?

Variety reports that Netflix doesn’t want the dying linear TV networks, so it’s expected Warner Bros. Discovery will follow through on its planned split.

This means that a new company named Discovery Global will be left to choke on a tremendous amount of debt and a portfolio of dying brands. So current WBD CFO Gunnar Wiedenfels will be in charge of the following assets as leader of the new company:

  • Discovery Channel
  • Bleacher Report
  • HGTV
  • CNN and CNN All Access
  • TNT
  • TLC
  • Cartoon Network
  • Food Network
  • TBS
  • Adult Swim
  • Discovery+
  • TNT Sports in the U.S.

Netflix presumably takes over the rest of the company, which was going to be named Warner Bros.:

  • Warner Bros. movie and TV studios
  • HBO
  • HBO Max
  • DC Studios
  • TNT Sports (international)

I expect Netflix may try to dump those international sports rights. It’s not their thing.

Warner Bros. Discovery shows

Netflix’s 2 Big Prizes: The Catalog and the IP

Netflix has done fairly well for itself in creating buzz-worthy TV, but movie success has been harder to come by. Its most popular movies of all time are “K-Pop Demon Hunters,” the star-studded but forgettable “Red Notice,” the just-okay action flick “Carry-On,” and Adam McKay’s flat-footed satire “Don’t Look Up.”

They’re the kind of movies you watch once and forget, unless you’re one of my children who can’t stop singing the “K-Pop” soundtrack.

Warner Bros. has 100 years of success in the movie business and hits from “Casablanca” to “Barbie” and everything in-between. Say what you will about HBO Max’s recent output, the movie catalog contains more great films than any other streamer. Netflix gets to add all those old movies to their lineup and keep them there forever if they want. That alone may have been reason to make the deal.

Warner Bros. Television also has plenty of hits under its belt like “The Dukes of Hazzard,” “Night Court,” “Growing Pains,” “Full House,” “Murphy Brown,” “The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air,” “Friends,” “ER,” “Will & Grace,” “Gilmore Girls,” “Smallville,” “Supernatural,” “The Big Bang Theory,” and “Young Sheldon.” Netflix may not have exclusive rights to all those shows (TV rights are weird), but there’s a great library of variety.

The Warner vault is outstanding, but moving forward, the intellectual property is a real ace up Netflix’s sleeve.

Netflix will get to control all the DC superheroes, like Batman, Superman, and Wonder Woman. They get The Matrix and Harry Potter rights. Netflix can now reboot or remake or spinoff lots of great titles. While I’m skeptical they will do right by adult audiences, Netflix does a great job with kids’ entertainment, so maybe they can rescue abandoned icons like the Hanna-Barbera characters and Looney Tunes (which have become huge hits for Tubi).

The IP will also be helpful for Netflix’s gaming ambitions. Make me proud, Netflix: make an awesome Batman game for my phone.

HBO Max screen showing The Sopranos

Does HBO Max Go Away?

We can’t say for sure if Netflix will kill off HBO Max. I’d like to think Netflix may keep HBO as a separate brand, letting the excellent leader Casey Bloys continue his magic.

While Netflix feels like a general entertainment brand, HBO represents boundary-pushing adult entertainment that can feature truly terrifying violence, nudity, and profanity. There may be a temptation to “soften” the HBO brand to fold it into Netflix, but there may be some logic in keeping HBO Max as the “serious” streamer for grown-ups, while Netflix caters to the whole family.

If Netflix completely absorbs HBO Max, the subscription cost is going to melt your face. Ad-free for $29.99 or $39.99 isn’t off the table.

hbo max logo

$18.49/mo.

The Reaction

Not everyone is willing to go on the record, but here’s one of Hulu’s founding leaders and the former CEO of Warner Bros.:

According to Variety, a group of entertainment A-listers sent an anonymous letter to members of Congress, suggesting that a merger would allow Netflix to โ€œeffectively hold a noose around the theatrical marketplace.โ€

There’s a very real fear that Netflix doesn’t care about theatrical windows or even investing in the kinds of big-budget titles that audiences are willing to pay for. Will Netflix dedicate itself to pumping out 12-15 theatrical films each year? Will they keep up the high standards of HBO? How will the company decide which titles get theatrical releases, and which shows appear on HBO, and which titles go straight-to-Netflix?

To be clear, this is not a done deal. Netflix could have to suck up to the Trump administration to get regulatory approval.

Paramount has already shown a willingness to grovel, hiring right-wing hack Bari Weiss to destroy CBS News and somehow green lighting a $100M “Rush Hour” sequel to please the president. (This movie would feature a 71-year-old Jackie Chan and will be directed by Brett Ratner, who was run out of Hollywood after 6 women accused him of sexual misconduct.) Paramount is also hoping the Trump administration can gum up the works so they can thwart Netflix and take over WBD with the help of Saudi money.

Netflix doesn’t carry the baggage of a news organization and it would be hard to characterize the streamer as “woke.” But would Trump screw over Netflix to help a fellow billionaire nepo-baby swipe Warner Bros? Absolutely.

What Does This Merger Look Like in 5 Years

If we take the Disney-Fox deal as guidance, the outlook isn’t great. Netflix will surely do a good job curating the library and surfacing it for their users. But Netflix hasn’t shown they know what to do to make movies pop in the theater. They have no experience programming a full linear channel.

It’s reasonable to expect a compromised theatrical release schedule of maybe 8 movies a year. Netflix’s price will likely double by 2030. There’s a decent chance Netflix kills off the HBO channel entirely.

Netflix is likely to yank HBO Max off Prime Video and it will probably kill the bundle with Disney+ and Hulu.

To quote Netflix co-CEO Greg Peters less than two months ago, โ€œOne should have a reasonable amount of skepticism around big media mergers โ€” they donโ€™t have an amazing track record over time.โ€

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